SHFE tin opened slightly lower in the night session and fluctuated downward. Trading in the spot market may recover. [SMM Tin Morning News]

January 19, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) opened slightly lower and fluctuated downward during the night session, closing at 379,600 yuan/mt, down 8.42%.

Macro: (1) The "Proposal of the Shanghai Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for Shanghai's National Economic and Social Development" was released. The proposal aims to build six emerging pillar industrial clusters: driving the renewal and upgrade of the new generation of electronic information through smart terminal innovation; accelerating the development of intelligent connected NEVs through software-hardware synergy and digital-intelligent drive; supporting the efficient development of high-end equipment by improving supply chain supporting efficiency; promoting innovative breakthroughs in advanced materials through high-end applications; facilitating the scaled development of the new energy and green low-carbon industries via technological breakthroughs and demonstration applications; and fostering the brand development of fashion consumer goods through technological empowerment and design innovation. (2) US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said on Friday that South Korean memory chip manufacturers could face tariffs of up to 100% if they do not commit to increasing investment in the US. Lutnick stated, "Every company that wants to do memory chip business in the US has two choices: either pay a 100% tariff or build in the US. That's industrial policy." He did not mention any specific company names. Currently, Trump has not imposed tariffs on most foreign-made semiconductors, instead instructing Lutnick and US Trade Representative Greer to negotiate with trading partners to reduce US reliance on chip imports. The White House said earlier this week that Trump may announce new tariff measures and corresponding compensation plans in the "near future" to incentivize domestic manufacturing development.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in January. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchasing remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot market: Trading was generally sluggish last week. Futures prices hit consecutive limit-ups and reached new highs, significantly dampening downstream purchase willingness. Only sporadic essential orders followed in small volumes. Suppliers mostly held prices pending sale, while downstream enterprises, facing persistently high raw material costs and pressure on capital chains, adopted an extremely cautious purchasing attitude. Most maintained a hand-to-mouth purchasing pace. Some processing enterprises saw a decline in operating rates, and the traditional pre-holiday stockpiling habit has not yet materialized this year.

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